Every quarter, I mail out a report to the Gramercy area with news and views on the neighborhood’s real estate market. This year, I’m making a digital version available to all! Click the cloud-shaped icon below to download to the whole report, including my market analysis for last quarter (1Q 2019) and predictions for this quarter (2Q 2019).
For those unable to download, I’m also sharing the interior text below:
THE OVERALL MARKET
As predicted in my 4Q 2018 report, the market did not fare any better in 1Q of 2019. Inventory is up and closed sales are down by 13% quarter over quarter. The Manhattan real estate market continues to face severe headwinds triggered by last year’s newly-passed tax laws; this has led to increasing inventory and the baseless perception in minds of buyers that prices are going to fall precipitously in the near future. We are in a full-blown buyers’ market where economic numbers do not support most buyers’ reasoning.
THE DOWNTOWN MARKET
For the second quarter in a row, the Downtown market outperformed all other submarkets in Manhattan. Downtown sales decreased by only 1% year over year. Although there was a small drop in prices, apartments in cooperatives continued to fare better than their counterparts in the condominium market.
THE MARKET & GRAMERCY
Although the Downtown market has fared comparatively better than the rest of Manhattan, it has still succumbed to malaise that has infected the other submarkets of Manhattan. Although Gramercy neighborhood activity has increased in the past few weeks, buyers have unusually unrealistic expectations. I get calls from buyers expecting two-bedroom apartments facing Gramercy Park below $1.8 million! Buyers in the Gramercy market need to temper their expectations when it comes to bargain hunting.
INSIGHTS FOR THE NEXT QUARTER
Market-wide closings in Manhattan fell 5% annually with the lowest first-quarter sales since 2009. Increasing inventory and unrealistic expectations in the minds of buyers will keep sales flat for the next quarter. The silver lining in all of this is that the market is not being driven by facts, but instead by emotions; to invert the old adage, what goes down must come up!